Ukraine Claims Intrusion into Russia Could Change War’s Outcome

“All wars end with talks. It’s not the soldiers in the trenches who get say when that happens.”

Ar signed up for the army in 202 because he wanted to help his country survive. Now, 30 months later, he talks something new: “Peace.”

“No one likes war. We want it to be,” he shares while leaning against his camo pick-up truck. The troops we meet near the Russian border also hope to end Russia’s invasion on terms that they can accept. Yes, survival is super important—of course it is—but they seem to be looking for a finish line.

“For Ukraine, for our people, we will stand until the end,” Arni adds with determination.

Up until August 6, Ukraine focused only on getting liberated. Their goal was clear: push Russian forces back to where they were before Russia first invaded in 2014. Even though it was slow, this has been happening for over a year and a half, with Russian forces making ground into Ukrainian territory.

Then came a big surprise—a bold counter-offensive right into Russia’s Kursk region. This caught everyone off guard except those tough Ukrainian soldiers who made it happen.

“It was successful and daring for sure,” says Serhii Kuzan, the chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, which is a think tank. Now, Kyiv can’t stop talking about the offensive, showing tons of pictures of troops delivering aid while taking down Russian flags.

“It changes the story,” notes Alina Frolova, a security expert and former deputy defense minister of Ukraine. “A situation where we slowly lose territory isn’t good at all.” She believes “Ukraine’s strategic position has changed.”

Even with echoes from Russia’s early invasion days, Kyiv insists it doesn’t want to occupy any land.

So what’s the goal? Well, there are several.

Buffer Zone

“This attack aimed partly to protect the city of Sumy better,” explains Serhii Kuzan. He points out that people forget the border is still a frontline battle area. Since this summer, President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned there were over 2,000 strikes on Sumy from the Kursk region alone—250 glide bombs included! For months now, folks worried that Russian troops might try attacking across the border too. By pushing them back, Serhii thinks it will make defending Ukraine easier overall.

“The captured Russian city of Sudzha sits on high ground. The Russians now have a tougher time since we control their approach routes,” he explains.

While Russia has been forced to react to Ukraine on the battlefield, its supply lines have also taken hits. Important roads have been seized and a key bridge destroyed.

The Redeployment of Russian Forces

“The main aim of this offensive into Kursk is to draw Russia’s focus away from its occupied territories in Ukraine,” says Ivan Stupak, who worked with Ukraine’s security service from 2004-2015.

The good news? That seems to be happening! Unfortunately, as this unfolds, Russian advances toward towns like Pokrovsk aren’t slowing down.

“I’ve seen some Russian troops moving around—shifting from places like Kherson or Kharkiv or Donetsk,” Ivan mentions. He thinks about 10,000 troops are being redirected mostly from other areas in Russia.

The ‘Exchange Fund’

This is how President Zelensky refers to Ukraine’s collection of captured Russian soldiers. When Ukraine finds momentum as it fights forward, it tends to capture more enemies and can negotiate their own soldiers’ release more easily.

The Kursk offensive followed this pattern too! Kyiv claims that hundreds of Russian troops were taken prisoner. Some could even be seen surrendering in drone clips while being brought back to Ukraine with tape blindfolds on.

“Moscow is now actually saying it wants to start talking about exchanging prisoners of war,” adds Serhii Kuzan. “It’s no longer about us reaching out through Qatar or the United Arab Emirates asking them for our soldiers back.”

Pressure

This plays a major role in Kyiv.

On a local level though, think about all the horror and anger felt by civilians in the Kursk region because of that fierce Ukrainian attack on their homes! There were mass evacuations and a lot of cries for help along with complaints that some authorities didn’t do enough to stop what happened.

On a political level, you had Russian President Vladimir Putin seen both receiving briefings on events in Moscow and, visually reacting to them.

And there is the military level as well, of course.

“This influence could be pretty large,” summarized Alina Frolova about this Ukrainian incursion. “And it is exactly for that reason using highly professional troops was exactly the right thing to do.”

Future bargaining chips

If Ukraine does not intend to keep hold of the Russian territory that it has seized but can wait out the Russians, then what it will do is use the land as a bargaining tool to get back some of its territory.

Yet, it is a massive ‘if’.

And it has always benefited the larger Russia when fighting slackens. One can credit the political leadership of Ukraine for one thing: misdirection and surprise have always served the country well.

As Alina Frovola said, ‘In a symmetric war we stand naked against Russia’. Thus, ensuring that the so-called asymmetrical actions are carried out.

Such a deceleration of the advances in the Kursk region can put Kyiv in a rather unenviable position.

There is always a light at the end of the tunnel and as long as there is movement there are gains, avows Serhii Kuzan.

“An advance rate of 1-3km a day is normal for swapping forward units with reserves,” he says. For the Russians in Ukraine’s Donbas region, the average advance rate is 400m.

‘Our tempo in the Kursk region is five times higher than the 100,000 persons strong Army!’

But the rub for Kyiv is that Russians are still advancing in Ukraine.

But, of course, Ukraine cannot stop its attacks on Russia anytime soon.

It is committed now.

And where does this leave Vladimir Putin?

Russia’s president at first referred to the attack as a ‘terrorist attack’ and ‘provocation’, but in the days since, he has barely mentioned it.

Still, it passively contributes to his story that the Russian invasion is a defensive war for his people.

Maybe he does not want the feeling that many of the people in the Kursk region have, to become widespread or to create an impression that his military is helpless.

Still, as with the Kursk submarine disaster or failed coup of last year, Vladimir Putin is occasionally slow to seize the initiative.

Ukraine will be hoping he’s not this time because he can’t.