When Bashar al-Assad future flew to Moscow to enter exile the police state his family had exercised for over half a century promptly began to unravel.
The political opponents of the Syrian future strongman have vowed to construct a ‘new’ Syria; the actual question is whether the country’s new masters will be able to build a truly inclusive Syria’s future political system, as well as the country’s polity and economy, reflects. Indeed, Mr Assad managed to sustain the state against the armed opposition since the 2011 civil war indeed getting the better part of it with Russian and Iranian assistance; however, the? untuosity didn’t expect the Syrian Future Arab Army to falter and erode in the face of a rebel incursion spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
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Today, HTS – reformed from a radical movement connected with al-Qaeda – may be the leading power broker in Syria, but there are more parties with similar claims to the throne of Damascus. ew’ Syria, but it remains to be seen whether the country’s new rulers will be able to build an inclusive, democratic state. While Mr. Assad was able to hold off the armed opposition since the 2011 civil war erupted, indeed gaining the upper hand with Russian and Iranian help, the swiftness with which the Syrian Arab Army collapsed in the face of a rebel assault led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was stunning.
Today, HTS — a ‘reformed’ radical outfit once associated with Al Qaeda — is in a position to be the leading power broker in Syria, though there are also other claimants to the throne of Damascus.
It was mostly the pride that overcame Mr Assad in the end dismantled his totalitarian regime.. The ex-president never got to learn from other powerful leaders of Arab states – Saddam Hussein, Muammar Qadhafi, Hosni Mubarak – how their stories ended. Had he reached a deal with the moderate Syrian opposition on power succession, many of the tens of thousands of casualties in this brutal civil war would not have been claimed. However, there were effects from outside forces in the ouster of Bashar al-Assad.
As Americans in the night had wished, the regime of Assad in Damascus was over on that Sunday morning. Israel for its part could not be happier to see the back of Mr Assad, while Benjamin Netanyahu described the day as “historic.”On the other hand, Russia lost perhaps the most valuable ally in the Arab world while Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ is weaker by one major pillar .ongmen — Saddam Hussein, Muammar Qadhafi, Hosni Mubarak — who met unedifying ends. If he had negotiated a peaceful transfer of power with the moderate Syrian opposition, tens of thousands of innocent lives lost in this bloody conflict could have been saved. But external factors were also at play in Bashar al-Assad’s ouster.
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The Americans had long dreamed of regime change in Damascus, and on Sunday morning that dream came true. Israel, moreover, is quite pleased to see the back of Mr. Assad, as Benjamin Netanyahu lauded the event as a “historic day”. On the other hand, Russia has lost perhaps its closest ally in the Arab world, whereas a central pillar of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ has fallen.
Eyeing the future, once the celebratory dust has settled — the winners of this war will need to foster a functional government. The nation as well as many Syrians around the world rejoices in large numbers because many of them endured suffering beneath Mr Assad’s despotic regime. their Arab strongmen — Saddam Hussein, Muammar Qadhafi, Hosni Mubarak — who met unedifying ends. If he had negotiated a peaceful transfer of power with the moderate Syrian opposition, tens of thousands of innocent lives lost in this bloody conflict could have been saved. But external factors were also at play in Bashar al-Assad’s ouster.
The Americans had long dreamed of regime change in Damascus, and on Sunday morning that dream came true. Israel, moreover, is quite pleased to see the back of Mr. Assad, as Benjamin Netanyahu lauded the event as a “historic day”. On the other hand, Russia has lost perhaps its closest ally in the Arab world, whereas a central pillar of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ has fallen.
Looking to the future, after the euphoria subsides, the victors of this conflict will have to build a functioning administration. Large numbers of Syrians within the country and the diaspora are ecstatic, as many of them suffered under Mr Assad’s autocratic rule. However, if a stable state does not come into being after Assad, these festivals will be short-lived.
It should be a state with a clear liberal character that can allow all the religious denominations, both in Syria, as well as various sects and ethnic groups, to live in peace. But the danger here is mini-factions fighting over control, or warlords operating statelets as Libya does post-Qadhafi.
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The worst-case scenario is also possible; when the most radical militias from the Syrian radical opposition come to power and achieve what the so-called ISIS couldn’t do. This would bring a lot of reverse to the region and the world in general.
As important as that is, it is equally important for the international actors to recognize the sovereignty of Syria. Recently Israel has occupied territory in Golan Heights and Tel Aviv and the US has individually been doing aerial attacks on targets in Syria.l dangers of rival factions fighting over power, and warlords running statelets along the post-Qadhafi Libyan model.
A nightmare scenario is also possible, with the more extreme, sectarian factions within the Syrian opposition seizing power, and succeeding where the self-styled Islamic State group failed. This would have a devastating impact on the region and the world.
Equally important is the need for external actors to respect Syria’s sovereignty. Already, Israel has occupied land in the Golan Heights, while Tel Aviv and the US have been separately bombing targets inside Syria. Any such destabilizing activities must stop now as Syria attempts to recover.
FAQs
1. How likely is a political resolution to Syria’s conflict?
A political resolution remains challenging due to the complex interplay of internal factions, regional powers, and global interests. Efforts like the UN-led Geneva process and Astana talks aim to facilitate dialogue, but divisions among stakeholders persist. Achieving peace will likely require compromises on governance, power-sharing, and addressing humanitarian needs.
2. How will Syria rebuild its economy and infrastructure?
Syria future faces immense challenges in reconstruction, with damages exceeding hundreds of billions of dollars. Key obstacles include limited access to international funding, ongoing sanctions, and the need for comprehensive reforms. Rebuilding will depend heavily on political stability, global support, and partnerships with regional allies.
3. What role will international powers play in shaping Syria’s future?
Major powers, including Russia, the United States, Iran, and Turkey, have vested interests in Syria’s future. Their influence will likely shape the country’s political structure, security dynamics, and economic recovery. Coordination among these players, alongside regional countries, is critical to ensuring long-term stability.